Taiwan is just a diversion. Why start shit in a faraway place with only naval superiority, a depleted stockpile of weapons, and the assured certainty of riling up the entire Chinese population? A conflict in Taiwan leads not to the destabilization of China but the galvanization of a country for total war.
Much better instead to crush the crown jewel of the BRI: the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), specifically the Gwadar port located a mere 120 kilometers from Iran.
And you don’t have to bring soldiers, tanks and missiles to do it: you can do Pakistan the way they did Bangladesh and Egypt—i.e. via propaganda and color revolution. Prepare for a Baloch Spring!
The question comes down to this: will China fight to protect its interests abroad? The answer is: hell no! To do so requires propaganda at home—i.e. convincing one’s domestic population that fighting some far off war is actually in China’s interests. I don’t think China can manage this. A war in Pakistan to protect the Gwadar port is a non-starter.
Yet this simply translates into another nation being sacrificed to the imperial war machine; Pakistan’s days are not numbered exactly, but Pakistan is next on the imperial hit list. Destabilizing an already unstable region should not be difficult (and the imperialists already got the regime change they wanted with the ouster of Imran Khan).
Pakistan can look forward to being (further) Palestinianized.
Anyone keeping tabs on countries that have been chewed up by the imperial war machine in the 21st century alone? Let’s recap:
1) Afghanistan
2) Iraq
3) Libya
4) Syria
5) Egypt
6) Sudan
7) Ukraine
8) Gaza
9) Bangladesh
All these countries have been decimated by some mix of fake revolutions/psyops, military incursions, followed by regime change, all in a time span of 24 years! None of these countries can hope to “normalize” within 50 years. In fact, they can expect more covert military infiltration, fake news, and constant destabilization forever.
China makes it its business not to interfere in the internal politics of any nation. Russia refuses to sign onto any mutual defense treaty. Historically, China has been a victim of internal meddling and seeks not to export this to the world. Historically, Russia has seen how “entangling alliances” led to two World Wars, both of which decimated Russia’s human population.
However principled these two positions are, they result in a world of forever war and conflict because the imperialists take the opposite tack on both counts. The imperialists will not hesitate to meddle in the internal affairs of other nations and are busy expanding NATO —precisely the sort of mutual defense arrangement (an attack on one is an attack on all) Putin will never go near.
So the question to Russia and China is: what are you going to do about it?
It makes perfect sense to say you do not interfere in the domestic affairs of any nation when a nation’s domestic affairs do not concern vital national interests. But global influence is a double-edged sword. China is in the unenviable position of wanting to exert soft power globally without the corresponding supplements (propaganda and boots on the ground) necessary to consolidate such power. It remains to be seen if this is a viable strategy.
If the Gwadar port, for example, becomes the only way for China to import the food it requires to feed its population, then it makes no sense to simply say, “We do not interfere in the domestic affairs of any nation.” Putin watched aghast as the Germans allowed the imperialists to blow up their own infrastructure. The German government was perfectly willing to pay inflated prices for natural gas than buy on the cheap from Russia! Why? Because their American masters told them to do so.
(Putin, of course, did not intervene in Germany to change this; but in the Crimea, he had no choice.)
The imperialists could easily do the same to CPEC. Will President Xi allow his flagship infrastructure project to fail simply because the imperialists throw bags of money at the Sharif brothers?
I suspect he would; as of right now, China has few cards to play and must simply stand down. Maybe food riots would one day force his hand, meaning China would have no choice but to take its rightful place in the world as hegemon. In the meantime, the imperialists look at the BRI and salivate at the prospect of creating forever wars and regime change all along the newly built Eurasian highways.
The Chinese war movie entitled The Sacrifice (2020) tells the story of Chinese PVA soldiers protecting a key piece of infrastructure along the Geumgang River in Korea during the Korean War. It’s a simple wooden bridge easily and continuously destroyed by American air power but continuously rebuilt, to the significant chagrin of the Americans.
I suppose this is one way to exhaust the enemy; if the imperialists insist on forever sabotage, the Chinese can respond with forever sacrifice and call this victory. Better to sustain small-scale infrastructure sabotage forever and rebuild than risk any final nuclear Armageddon, or so the reasoning goes.
The Korean War, as we all know, ended in stalemate with both sides claiming victory. We live with its consequences today.
Nowadays, prospects for peripheral nations hosting key great-power infrastructure projects become increasingly dismal as the world conspires to uphold a global stalemate of forever war. Nine nations and counting in less than 25 years have already been sacrificed. China may achieve “socialism by 2050,” but by 2050, many more nations will dream not of socialism but survival.
Excellent. I'm all for a "multi-polar world", of course. A great first step. But, there are some pretty big problems - take the Covid Fraud and Vax Agenda, for instance. https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=4270a98441&view=lg&permmsgid=msg-f:1807091390056818371
https://substack.com/@davemann